Against the Grain: Strength of Schedule trends
By Andrew Perloff
Worked with STATs Inc to try to predict who will get hot in the second half of the season and who will struggle based on strength of schedule. Here’s the formula: which teams had the biggest difference between the SOS of the teams they’ve faced so far and SOS for teams they face the rest of the season. Below are the top five differentials, both positive and negative. And also the entire list, via STATs Inc.
Obviously there are many variables, like injuries, that affect true strength of schedule. And K.C. and Denver make their opponents SOS much more difficult. Interesting that the Panthers snuck in there. And the Bills are getting E.J. Manuel back and their schedule gets easier.
Does this all make sense? Tweet me @andrewperloff if not.
From Easiest to Toughest
Team – Difference in SOS between past/future
Chargers – .298
Chiefs –. 241
Broncos – .239
Panthers – .192
Vikings – .130
From Toughest to Easiest
Bills +.291
Jaguars +.248
Texans +.165
Lions +.145
Titans +.136
Toughest Strength of Schedule Left to Play, 2013
Team Opp Win Pct Opp Record
1. San Diego Chargers .701 47-20 –
2. Denver Broncos .627 42-25
3. St. Louis Rams .614 35-22
4. Minnesota Vikings .610 36-23
5. Kansas City Chiefs .596 34-23
6. Oakland Raiders .567 38-29
7. Baltimore Ravens .551 38-31
8. Carolina Panthers .545 36-30
9. Atlanta Falcons .537 36-31
10. New York Giants .529 36-32
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers .515 34-32
12. Washington Redskins .508 30-29
13. New Orleans Saints .507 34-33
14. Pittsburgh Steelers .500 34-34
15. Arizona Cardinals .493 33-34
16. Philadelphia Eagles .492 29-30
17. Dallas Cowboys .483 28-30
New England Patriots .483 28-30
19. Indianapolis Colts .478 32-35
20. Houston Texans .477 31-34
21. San Francisco 49ers .463 31-36
22. Cleveland Browns .458 27-32
23. Miami Dolphins .456 31-37
24. Chicago Bears .449 31-38
25. New York Jets .448 26-32
26. Jacksonville Jaguars .439 29-37
27. Tennessee Titans .438 28-36
28. Seattle Seahawks .431 25-33
29. Cincinnati Bengals .414 24-34
30. Green Bay Packers .403 27-40
31. Detroit Lions .348 23-43
32. Buffalo Bills .345 20-38
Toughest Strength of Schedule Played, 2013
1. Jacksonville Jaguars .687 46-21
2. Houston Texans .642 43-24
3. Buffalo Bills .636 49-28
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers .603 41-27
5. New York Giants .594 41-28
6. Tennessee Titans .574 39-29
7. Miami Dolphins .544 37-31
8. Washington Redskins .533 40-35
9. Arizona Cardinals .530 35-31
10. Cleveland Browns .526 40-36
Cincinnati Bengals .526 40-36
12. Indianapolis Colts .523 34-31
13. Oakland Raiders .522 35-32
14. Pittsburgh Steelers .515 35-33
15. Atlanta Falcons .507 34-33
16. Dallas Cowboys .506 39-38
17. Green Bay Packers .500 34-34
18. Detroit Lions .493 34-35
19. New York Jets .487 37-39
20. St. Louis Rams .486 36-38
21. San Francisco 49ers .485 32-34
22. Minnesota Vikings .480 36-39
23. Philadelphia Eagles .467 35-40
24. Baltimore Ravens .463 31-36
Chicago Bears .463 31-36
26. New Orleans Saints .448 30-37
27. New England Patriots .434 33-43
28. Seattle Seahawks .411 30-43
29. San Diego Chargers .403 27-40
30. Denver Broncos .388 26-41
31. Kansas City Chiefs .355 27-49
32. Carolina Panthers .353 24-44