Against the Grain: Strength of Schedule trends

By Andrew Perloff

Worked with STATs Inc to try to predict who will get hot in the second half of the season and who will struggle based on strength of schedule. Here’s the formula: which teams had the biggest difference between the SOS of the teams they’ve faced so far and SOS for teams they face the rest of the season. Below are the top five differentials, both positive and negative. And also the entire list, via STATs Inc.

Obviously there are many variables, like injuries, that affect true strength of schedule. And K.C. and Denver make their opponents SOS much more difficult. Interesting that the Panthers snuck in there. And the Bills are getting E.J. Manuel back and their schedule gets easier.

Does this all make sense? Tweet me @andrewperloff if not.

From Easiest to Toughest

Team – Difference in SOS between past/future

Chargers – .298

Chiefs –. 241

Broncos – .239

Panthers – .192

Vikings – .130

From Toughest to Easiest

Bills +.291

Jaguars +.248

Texans +.165

Lions +.145

Titans +.136

 

Toughest Strength of Schedule Left to Play, 2013

Team                       Opp Win Pct   Opp Record

1. San Diego Chargers           .701            47-20 –

2. Denver Broncos               .627            42-25

3. St. Louis Rams               .614            35-22

4. Minnesota Vikings            .610            36-23

5. Kansas City Chiefs           .596            34-23

6. Oakland Raiders              .567            38-29

7. Baltimore Ravens             .551            38-31

8. Carolina Panthers            .545            36-30

9. Atlanta Falcons              .537            36-31

10. New York Giants              .529            36-32

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         .515            34-32

12. Washington Redskins          .508            30-29

13. New Orleans Saints           .507            34-33

14. Pittsburgh Steelers          .500            34-34

15. Arizona Cardinals            .493            33-34

16. Philadelphia Eagles          .492            29-30

17. Dallas Cowboys               .483            28-30

New England Patriots         .483            28-30

19. Indianapolis Colts           .478            32-35

20. Houston Texans               .477            31-34

21. San Francisco 49ers          .463            31-36

22. Cleveland Browns             .458            27-32

23. Miami Dolphins               .456            31-37

24. Chicago Bears                .449            31-38

25. New York Jets                .448            26-32

26. Jacksonville Jaguars         .439            29-37

27. Tennessee Titans             .438            28-36

28. Seattle Seahawks             .431            25-33

29. Cincinnati Bengals           .414            24-34

30. Green Bay Packers            .403            27-40

31. Detroit Lions                .348            23-43

32. Buffalo Bills                .345            20-38

Toughest Strength of Schedule Played, 2013

1. Jacksonville Jaguars         .687            46-21

2. Houston Texans               .642            43-24

3. Buffalo Bills                .636            49-28

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         .603            41-27

5. New York Giants              .594            41-28

6. Tennessee Titans             .574            39-29

7. Miami Dolphins               .544            37-31

8. Washington Redskins          .533            40-35

9. Arizona Cardinals            .530            35-31

10. Cleveland Browns             .526            40-36

Cincinnati Bengals           .526            40-36

12. Indianapolis Colts           .523            34-31

13. Oakland Raiders              .522            35-32

14. Pittsburgh Steelers          .515            35-33

15. Atlanta Falcons              .507            34-33

16. Dallas Cowboys               .506            39-38

17. Green Bay Packers            .500            34-34

18. Detroit Lions                .493            34-35

19. New York Jets                .487            37-39

20. St. Louis Rams               .486            36-38

21. San Francisco 49ers          .485            32-34

22. Minnesota Vikings            .480            36-39

23. Philadelphia Eagles          .467            35-40

24. Baltimore Ravens             .463            31-36

Chicago Bears                .463            31-36

26. New Orleans Saints           .448            30-37

27. New England Patriots         .434            33-43

28. Seattle Seahawks             .411            30-43

29. San Diego Chargers           .403            27-40

30. Denver Broncos               .388            26-41

31. Kansas City Chiefs           .355            27-49

32. Carolina Panthers            .353            24-44

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